蒙古建首座炼油厂

habur

日本企业协助蒙古建首座炼油厂 ... 该厂为该国首座炼油厂，其投产将减少蒙古对进口油品的依赖。 新炼油厂预计明年春季动工兴建，于2010年上半年试运行，2012年6月达到满 ...
  Mongolia’s long awaited oil factory is finally going to be built in Darkhan city. Its construction will begin in 2009 and it will launch in 2012. For the Mongolians, who are always in shortage of fuel supply, having an oil factory built is of course great news. The introduction of the “Technical-financial valid report for oil factory construction” project, which was done by the Japanese Toyo Engineering Corporation by request of Mongolsecue Co., Ltd, was held in the Ministry of Energy and Resource. To introduce the project, Mr. Murakova, who is the vice president of Toyo Engineering Corp., and the project team leader, Suzuki Mutsutoshi, came to Mongolia. They decided to build the oil factory in Darkhan city based on the combination of surrounding environment and favorable authority. After importing unprocessed oil through pipeline and railway from Kazakstan, the factory will process the oil to supply the transportation fuel needs of Mongolia. “We have done all the research and are confident to extract enough production to supply Mongolia’s fuel needs” stated Mr. Suzuki Mitsumoshi. The only concern which requires bigger attention in building an oil factory, is the water supply. Especially in places which have cold winter climates, such as Mongolia, building an oil factory could face some problems. Water freezing, in below zero degree Celsius weather conditions, tends to slow oil processing. “But we will do more research on this and will successfully complete the project” says the project team leader, Mr. Suzuki Mitsumoshi. For financially dependent countries, such as Mongolia, acquiring financial independency requires huge amount of capital. An estimated $1.211USD billion is the required amount of capital for the construction of the oil factory. For the time being, in order to solve the problem, Mongolia is looking at the Japanese government and a 10 year loan from the Japanese International Bank. The Japanese are going to provide 60% of the required amount of capital and Mongolia is left to come up with the rest. By launching the oil factory, Mongolia could acquire 44000 barrels of oil a day, which should oversupply the fuel needs of the country. “Japanese Toyo Engineering Corp. has completed over 1550 oil related projects in 50 countries around the world, which demonstrates the solid experience in the related field and becomes the reason of our choice” says the President’s consultant, academic, Professor Namjim T.

八骏

恭喜蒙古----------------！！！！！！！！

amber

Thank you for the great news !!

henanhujaa

不要太激动。。。感觉到这有可能是日本人的一个巨大阴谋

还没有进一步的数据，因此无法定论是否真的是一个巨大阴谋。但是，运用贷款和援助的幌子来搞巨大阴谋，是发达国家的惯用伎俩。建议大家先看看“一个经济杀手的自白”一书。。。。

不过，凭借自己的某些疑虑，觉得这件事的阴谋成分似乎很大。

如果是我的话，我会问：

为什么贷款给蒙古建立一个炼油厂，而不是建立一个煤矿，一个发电厂外加一个煤炭氢化厂呢？原料供应如何解决？原料运输如何解决？为什么要使用哈萨克斯坦的石油？为什么厂址设在距离哈萨克斯坦很有距离的达尔汗？

是的，煤炭氢化工艺的成本不低，但是，煤炭氢化工艺所需要的主要原料--------煤炭、电力和水，在蒙古都很丰富。

我们必须看到，这个炼油厂的造价可不便宜，虽然是打着优惠贷款的幌子，但是利息也不低的。

在新闻中可以判断的信息至少有四条：
1. 这个炼油厂的造价不菲 ( estimated $1.211USD billion is the required amount of capital )
2. 这个炼油厂使用的是日本贷款 (The Japanese are going to provide 60% of the required amount of capital )
3. 这个炼油厂的厂址是蒙古北部的达尔汗 (build the oil factory in Darkhan city)
4. 这个炼油厂使用的原料来自哈萨克斯坦 (importing unprocessed oil through pipeline and railway from Kazakstan)


使用巨额贷款在达尔汗建立一个使用哈萨克斯坦原油的大型炼油厂，那么炼油厂是否有足够的电力来驱动呢？

炼油厂的原料-------石油-------按照报道中的原文是必须花费巨额外汇从哈萨克斯坦进口的，然后进口的石油还需要通过管道或铁路来到蒙古。

通过铁路从哈萨克斯坦来到蒙古北部的达尔汗？走哪条线？多远的运输距离？运输成本如何？据我所知目前并没有从科布多到达尔汗的铁路。

通过管道从哈萨克斯坦来到蒙古北部的达尔汗？那么今天究竟存在这样的一条管道吗？如果没有，那么铺设这样的一条管道又需要多少钱？日本人在苏联向西欧的天然气管道中赚取了一大笔钱，盖因类似的管道所使用的高级钢材十分特殊。在蒙古和哈萨克斯坦那样的气温下，维持这样的一条石油管道的运行又需要多少钱？

购买这些原油又需要多少外汇？哈萨克斯坦是不可能接受蒙图的，但是蒙古本国的煤矿是可以接受蒙图的。

如果是在蒙古的达尔汗建立煤矿、坑口电厂和煤炭氢化厂的话，那么就立即能够使用本地原料来制造出汽油来，而且整个过程不需要在运输上面花太多的钱，更重要的是整个生产过程同蒙古的外汇支付能力也不会挂钩，反正蒙古的达尔汗地区有的是煤炭和水。哪怕是蒙古人由于种种原因，没有一分钱的外汇，那么煤矿照样能够提供煤炭，坑口电厂照样能够发出电，而煤炭氢化厂也照样可以来使用煤炭、电力和水来制造汽油。

可是，对于这么一座建立在达尔汗的使用哈萨克斯坦原油为主要原料的炼油厂，如果蒙古的外汇支付能力出了问题，或者如果运输成本过高，那么这座炼油厂将立即由于缺乏原料而停产，机器只好静静地放在那里生锈，本国的汽油照样需要进口，可是巨额贷款外加天价利息却仍然还需要向日本人还。

因此，仔细地看了这篇新闻之后，我很怀疑这个东西是不是日本人的阴谋。。。

在坚船利炮的时代已经过去之后，西方国家对第三世界国家最常见的伎俩之一就是----------利用第三世界国家的决策层对现代工业经济并不是真的很熟悉的特点，诱导他们搞巨额贷款，然后使用这些巨额贷款来搞一些在设计时就有这样或者那样的并不符合实际情况的具有重大缺陷的巨大工程。请注意，这些缺陷是那些人故意设计出来的藏在鲜花之中的陷阱。一方面，这样的工程并不会真正地解决问题，反倒会成为第三世界国家真实经济的巨大包袱，从而能够做到:

1. 为第三世界国家的领导人制造政绩
2. 类似的巨大工程所需要的复杂设备需要进口，可以为西方国家的本国工业提供巨大市场，巨额贷款转了一圈又回到了自己的腰包里，更何况里面往往还有第三世界国家决策层的回扣猫腻问题
3. 在设计时就故意带有巨大缺陷的工程，最后根本不会解决问题，反倒会浪费宝贵的外汇，而且真正运转起来也是毫无可行性和可持续性，从而成为一个巨大的包袱
4. 打击第三世界国家的领导层和知识界关于本国工业化进程的信心
5. 诱使第三世界国家陷入于巨额外债陷阱

henanhujaa

达尔汗乌勒省(Дархан-Уулаймаг)，位于蒙古国中北部，四周为色楞格省包围。面积3,280平方公里，人口83,271(2000年)。首府达尔汗。原为蒙古两个直辖市之一(另一个是首都乌兰巴托)。
     
达尔汗乌拉省的主要工厂企业有:苏联援建的建筑材料工业联合企业、沙尔河露天煤矿、捷克斯洛伐克援建的水泥厂、波兰援建的硅酸盐砖石灰厂、匈牙利援建的肉类联合企业及羊皮制件厂、面粉厂、面包厂、饲料加工厂、乳晶厂和产量占全国90%以上的大型糖厂等工矿企业。其中，沙尔河露天煤矿生产的煤除供应达尔汗、色楞格地区以外，还供应乌兰巴托地区。该矿所建的热电站保障达尔汗—色楞格地区的用电，此外，在达尔汗—乌兰巴托之间的高压输电线还为乌兰巴托、额尔登特、苏赫巴托尔三个市和色楞格、中央两个省提供照明用电。该省的交通较为发达，北京—乌兰巴托—莫斯科国际列车途经该省。从达尔汗市到沙尔河煤矿铺设了66公里长的铁路。市郊设有机场。此外，邮电通讯设施较为发达，可与全国各地相联系。

henanhujaa

现在我就更有理由来提问了：

既然距离达尔汗市六十多公里就有一个沙尔河煤矿，而且还有热电站，在达尔汗与煤矿之间还有铁路，那么为什么不扩建这座煤矿、增加热电站功率，并在当地来直接建造一座煤炭氢化厂呢？

毕竟，无论是管道运输还是铁路运输，从哈萨克斯坦到达尔汗之间的距离可不近！更重要的是，如果蒙古人的外汇支付出现了问题，或者是口岸被关闭，那么炼油厂将立即停产！

无论如何，朝鲜90年代的所遭遇石油危机使我对进口石油很不感冒。。。

habur

Kazakhstan to import crude oil to Mongolia
Posted by Badrakh On January - 29 - 2009
S.Bayar, Prime Minister of Mongolia had met with K.K.Masimov, Prime Minister of Kazakhstan and had discussed about improving investment between the two countries. The main subject of the meeting was Mongolia to buy crude oil from Kazakhstan. During the last meeting of both parties N.A.Nazarbayev, President of Kazakhstan had accepted to import up to 1.5 million tonnes of crude oil to Mongolia.

O.Sodbileg, Chief executive of Mon oil gas also attended the meeting and had signed contracts with Kabaldin, Chief executive of Kazmunaigaz of Kazakhstan. The agreement is effective for 5 years and under the agreement Mongolia will buy 150 thousand tonnes of petroleum, 1.2-2.0 million tonnes of crude oil from Kazakhstan annually, starting from the year 2009.

Mongolia is one step closer to increasing the supply of crude oil, drill crude oil in Mongolia and also process the imported crude oil domestically. By achieving the targets above, we are able to meet 100% of domestic demand in the crude oil and petroleum sector.

habur

Our website reported earlier that oil refinery will be built in Darkhan Uul aimag, creating over 600 workplaces. Since it starts its operation, Mongolia will be independent from petroleum from Russia. According to the plan, 1 billion US$ is predicted, but due to decrease of steel and copper commodity price, its planned budget will be modified. The investment will be made by International Cooperation Bank of Japan and implemented by “Toyo Engineering” Co., Ltd.
Sources say that due to recession and commodity price slump, Japanese had to modify its initial funding. Therefore, its scheduled work, which was planned to start this spring, is postponed. After the modification, the Mongolian Government will negotiate with International Cooperation Bank of Japan, regarding loan

habur

此信息是可靠的，只不过因为金融危机耽误了工期。
为什么是哈萨克斯坦供油？因为蒙古和哈国有长期5年供油合同。而且将来的目的肯定是要加工自产原油，或者从西伯利亚进口原油也比进口成品油要便宜很多。

terguun

不是说信息的可靠性，只是想了解真实的情况。
象产量规模，基础条件等，蒙古有些石油资源，但开采难度很大，听说石油储量有60亿桶。
这两年给中国出口每年30000吨左右原油。
建设炼油厂对蒙古来说是个大问题，主要是外交安全战略的优先考虑。

毕竟周边都是超级大国，跟谁合作都会有麻烦，都不好惹。